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Task Packs

Marketing Foundation

Compact two-skill starter: clarify positioning and choose a lead magnet. Use Marketing Launch for the broader eight-skill go-to-market workflow.

Marketing Launch

Build an evidence-led marketing plan from ICP and competition through positioning, campaigns, growth and measurement.

Agent Audit Essentials

Diagnose architecture and context, plan agent-team responsibilities, then organize project context and session handoffs. Memory and cost-runtime reviews remain outside this pack.

Conversion and Activation Review

Review the journey from landing page and lead capture through registration, first value and transparent upgrades.

Campaign Content and Brand Review

Plan a campaign, draft its channel content and review the work against actual brand guidance.

Content and Launch Planning

Prioritize an editorial roadmap and plan how to launch and distribute it across suitable channels.

Customer, Market and Community Research

Understand customer needs, compare competitors and plan a community around real member value.

Lead Magnet to Lifecycle Nurture

Choose a relevant lead magnet, then draft a permission-based nurture journey with entry, suppression and exit rules.

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Define the API contract, then plan how to observe its latency, failures and retries. Guidance and checklist; no production changes.

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Profile a dataset, choose and interpret statistical methods, then validate calculations and conclusions before sharing.

B2B Outreach Foundation

Define the target account, prioritize buying signals, plan a human LinkedIn engagement routine and prepare evidence-led responses to buyer concerns.

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01 · Category

What the MCP returns at this step

40 · Business · Retention

Churn Prevention

Plan retention, dunning and win-back decision paths.

kuendigungsrisikochurn-prevention

Churn Prevention · Original SKILL.md

---
name: churn-prevention
description: "Reduce voluntary and involuntary churn with cancel flows, save offers, dunning, win-back tactics, and retention strategy. Use when users are cancelling, failed payments are rising, or subscription retention needs improvement."
risk: critical
source: "https://github.com/coreyhaines31/marketingskills"
date_added: "2026-03-21"
metadata:
  version: 1.1.0
---

# Churn Prevention

You are an expert in SaaS retention and churn prevention. Your goal is to help reduce both voluntary churn (customers choosing to cancel) and involuntary churn (failed payments) through well-designed cancel flows, dynamic save offers, proactive retention, and dunning strategies.

## When to Use
- Use when churn is rising or cancellation behavior needs intervention.
- Use when designing cancel flows, save offers, dunning, or retention programs.
- Use when the user wants to reduce either voluntary or involuntary churn.

## Before Starting

**Check for product marketing context first:**
If `.agents/product-marketing-context.md` exists (or `.claude/product-marketing-context.md` in older setups), read it before asking questions. Use that context and only ask for information not already covered or specific to this task.

Gather this context (ask if not provided):

### 1. Current Churn Situation
- What's your monthly churn rate? (Voluntary vs. involuntary if known)
- How many active subscribers?
- What's the average MRR per customer?
- Do you have a cancel flow today, or does cancel happen instantly?

### 2. Billing & Platform
- What billing provider? (Stripe, Chargebee, Paddle, Recurly, Braintree)
- Monthly, annual, or both billing intervals?
- Do you support plan pausing or downgrades?
- Any existing retention tooling? (Churnkey, ProsperStack, Raaft)

### 3. Product & Usage Data
- Do you track feature usage per user?
- Can you identify engagement drop-offs?
- Do you have cancellation reason data from past churns?
- What's your activation metric? (What do retained users do that churned users don't?)

### 4. Constraints
- B2B or B2C? (Affects flow design)
- Self-serve cancellation required? (Some regulations mandate easy cancel)
- Brand tone for offboarding? (Empathetic, direct, playful)

---

## How This Skill Works

Churn has two types requiring different strategies:

| Type | Cause | Solution |
|------|-------|----------|
| **Voluntary** | Customer chooses to cancel | Cancel flows, save offers, exit surveys |
| **Involuntary** | Payment fails | Dunning emails, smart retries, card updaters |

Voluntary churn is typically 50-70% of total churn. Involuntary churn is 30-50% but is often easier to fix.

This skill supports three modes:

1. **Build a cancel flow** — Design from scratch with survey, save offers, and confirmation
2. **Optimize an existing flow** — Analyze cancel data and improve save rates
3. **Set up dunning** — Failed payment recovery with retries and email sequences

---

## Cancel Flow Design

### The Cancel Flow Structure

Every cancel flow follows this sequence:

```
Trigger → Survey → Dynamic Offer → Confirmation → Post-Cancel
```

**Step 1: Trigger**
Customer clicks "Cancel subscription" in account settings.

**Step 2: Exit Survey**
Ask why they're cancelling. This determines which save offer to show.

**Step 3: Dynamic Save Offer**
Present a targeted offer based on their reason (discount, pause, downgrade, etc.)

**Step 4: Confirmation**
If they still want to cancel, confirm clearly with end-of-billing-period messaging.

**Step 5: Post-Cancel**
Set expectations, offer easy reactivation path, trigger win-back sequence.

### Exit Survey Design

The exit survey is the foundation. Good reason categories:

| Reason | What It Tells You |
|--------|-------------------|
| Too expensive | Price sensitivity, may respond to discount or downgrade |
| Not using it enough | Low engagement, may respond to pause or onboarding help |
| Missing a feature | Product gap, show roadmap or workaround |
| Switching to competitor | Competitive pressure, understand what they offer |
| Technical issues / bugs | Product quality, escalate to support |
| Temporary / seasonal need | Usage pattern, offer pause |
| Business closed / changed | Unavoidable, learn and let go gracefully |
| Other | Catch-all, include free text field |

**Survey best practices:**
- 1 question, single-select with optional free text
- 5-8 reason options max (avoid decision fatigue)
- Put most common reasons first (review data quarterly)
- Don't make it feel like a guilt trip
- "Help us improve" framing works better than "Why are you leaving?"

### Dynamic Save Offers

The key insight: **match the offer to the reason.** A discount won't save someone who isn't using the product. A feature roadmap won't save someone who can't afford it.

**Offer-to-reason mapping:**

| Cancel Reason | Primary Offer | Fallback Offer |
|---------------|---------------|----------------|
| Too expensive | Discount (20-30% for 2-3 months) | Downgrade to lower plan |
| Not using it enough | Pause (1-3 months) | Free onboarding session |
| Missing feature | Roadmap preview + timeline | Workaround guide |
| Switching to competitor | Competitive comparison + discount | Feedback session |
| Technical issues | Escalate to support immediately | Credit + priority fix |
| Temporary / seasonal | Pause subscription | Downgrade temporarily |
| Business closed | Skip offer (respect the situation) | — |

### Save Offer Types

**Discount**
- 20-30% off for 2-3 months is the sweet spot
- Avoid 50%+ discounts (trains customers to cancel for deals)
- Time-limit the offer ("This offer expires when you leave this page")
- Show the dollar amount saved, not just the percentage

**Pause subscription**
- 1-3 month pause maximum (longer pauses rarely reactivate)
- 60-80% of pausers eventually return to active
- Auto-reactivation with advance notice email
- Keep their data and settings intact

**Plan downgrade**
- Offer a lower tier instead of full cancellation
- Show what they keep vs. what they lose
- Position as "right-size your plan" not "downgrade"
- Easy path back up when ready

**Feature unlock / extension**
- Unlock a premium feature they haven't tried
- Extend trial of a higher tier
- Works best for "not getting enough value" reasons

**Personal outreach**
- For high-value accounts (top 10-20% by MRR)
- Route to customer success for a call
- Personal email from founder for smaller companies

### Cancel Flow UI Patterns

```
┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
│  We're sorry to see you go          │
│                                     │
│  What's the main reason you're      │
│  cancelling?                        │
│                                     │
│  ○ Too expensive                    │
│  ○ Not using it enough              │
│  ○ Missing a feature I need         │
│  ○ Switching to another tool        │
│  ○ Technical issues                 │
│  ○ Temporary / don't need right now │
│  ○ Other: [____________]            │
│                                     │
│  [Continue]                         │
│  [Never mind, keep my subscription] │
└─────────────────────────────────────┘
         ↓ (selects "Too expensive")
┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
│  What if we could help?             │
│                                     │
│  We'd love to keep you. Here's a    │
│  special offer:                     │
│                                     │
│  ┌───────────────────────────────┐  │
│  │  25% off for the next 3 months│  │
│  │  Save $XX/month               │  │
│  │                               │  │
│  │  [Accept Offer]               │  │
│  └───────────────────────────────┘  │
│                                     │
│  Or switch to [Basic Plan] at       │
│  $X/month →                         │
│                                     │
│  [No thanks, continue cancelling]   │
└─────────────────────────────────────┘
```

**UI principles:**
- Keep the "continue cancelling" option visible (no dark patterns)
- One primary offer + one fallback, not a wall of options
- Show specific dollar savings, not abstract percentages
- Use the customer's name and account data when possible
- Mobile-friendly (many cancellations happen on mobile)

For detailed cancel flow patterns by industry and billing provider, see [references/cancel-flow-patterns.md](references/cancel-flow-patterns.md).

---

## Churn Prediction & Proactive Retention

The best save happens before the customer ever clicks "Cancel."

### Risk Signals

Track these leading indicators of churn:

| Signal | Risk Level | Timeframe |
|--------|-----------|-----------|
| Login frequency drops 50%+ | High | 2-4 weeks before cancel |
| Key feature usage stops | High | 1-3 weeks before cancel |
| Support tickets spike then stop | High | 1-2 weeks before cancel |
| Email open rates decline | Medium | 2-6 weeks before cancel |
| Billing page visits increase | High | Days before cancel |
| Team seats removed | High | 1-2 weeks before cancel |
| Data export initiated | Critical | Days before cancel |
| NPS score drops below 6 | Medium | 1-3 months before cancel |

### Health Score Model

Build a simple health score (0-100) from weighted signals:

```
Health Score = (
  Login frequency score × 0.30 +
  Feature usage score   × 0.25 +
  Support sentiment     × 0.15 +
  Billing health        × 0.15 +
  Engagement score      × 0.15
)
```

| Score | Status | Action |
|-------|--------|--------|
| 80-100 | Healthy | Upsell opportunities |
| 60-79 | Needs attention | Proactive check-in |
| 40-59 | At risk | Intervention campaign |
| 0-39 | Critical | Personal outreach |

### Proactive Interventions

**Before they think about cancelling:**

| Trigger | Intervention |
|---------|-------------|
| Usage drop >50% for 2 weeks | "We noticed you haven't used [feature]. Need help?" email |
| Approaching plan limit | Upgrade nudge (not a wall — paywall-upgrade-cro handles this) |
| No login for 14 days | Re-engagement email with recent product updates |
| NPS detractor (0-6) | Personal follow-up within 24 hours |
| Support ticket unresolved >48h | Escalation + proactive status update |
| Annual renewal in 30 days | Value recap email + renewal confirmation |

---

## Involuntary Churn: Payment Recovery

Failed payments cause 30-50% of all churn but are the most recoverable.

### The Dunning Stack

```
Pre-dunning → Smart retry → Dunning emails → Grace period → Hard cancel
```

### Pre-Dunning (Prevent Failures)

- **Card expiry alerts**: Email 30, 15, and 7 days before card expires
- **Backup payment method**: Prompt for a second payment method at signup
- **Card updater services**: Visa/Mastercard auto-update programs (reduces hard declines 30-50%)
- **Pre-billing notification**: Email 3-5 days before charge for annual plans

### Smart Retry Logic

Not all failures are the same. Retry strategy by decline type:

| Decline Type | Examples | Retry Strategy |
|-------------|----------|----------------|
| Soft decline (temporary) | Insufficient funds, processor timeout | Retry 3-5 times over 7-10 days |
| Hard decline (permanent) | Card stolen, account closed | Don't retry — ask for new card |
| Authentication required | 3D Secure, SCA | Send customer to update payment |

**Retry timing best practices:**
- Retry 1: 24 hours after failure
- Retry 2: 3 days after failure
- Retry 3: 5 days after failure
- Retry 4: 7 days after failure (with dunning email escalation)
- After 4 retries: Hard cancel with reactivation path

**Smart retry tip:** Retry on the day of the month the payment originally succeeded (if Day 1 worked before, retry on Day 1). Stripe Smart Retries handles this automatically.

### Dunning Email Sequence

| Email | Timing | Tone | Content |
|-------|--------|------|---------|
| 1 | Day 0 (failure) | Friendly alert | "Your payment didn't go through. Update your card." |
| 2 | Day 3 | Helpful reminder | "Quick reminder — update your payment to keep access." |
| 3 | Day 7 | Urgency | "Your account will be paused in 3 days. Update now." |
| 4 | Day 10 | Final warning | "Last chance to keep your account active." |

**Dunning email best practices:**
- Direct link to payment update page (no login required if possible)
- Show what they'll lose (their data, their team's access)
- Don't blame ("your payment failed" not "you failed to pay")
- Include support contact for help
- Plain text performs better than designed emails for dunning

### Recovery Benchmarks

| Metric | Poor | Average | Good |
|--------|------|---------|------|
| Soft decline recovery | <40% | 50-60% | 70%+ |
| Hard decline recovery | <10% | 20-30% | 40%+ |
| Overall payment recovery | <30% | 40-50% | 60%+ |
| Pre-dunning prevention | None | 10-15% | 20-30% |

For the complete dunning playbook with provider-specific setup, see [references/dunning-playbook.md](references/dunning-playbook.md).

---

## Metrics & Measurement

### Key Churn Metrics

| Metric | Formula | Target |
|--------|---------|--------|
| Monthly churn rate | Churned customers / Start-of-month customers | <5% B2C, <2% B2B |
| Revenue churn (net) | (Lost MRR - Expansion MRR) / Start MRR | Negative (net expansion) |
| Cancel flow save rate | Saved / Total cancel sessions | 25-35% |
| Offer acceptance rate | Accepted offers / Shown offers | 15-25% |
| Pause reactivation rate | Reactivated / Total paused | 60-80% |
| Dunning recovery rate | Recovered / Total failed payments | 50-60% |
| Time to cancel | Days from first churn signal to cancel | Track trend |

### Cohort Analysis

Segment churn by:
- **Acquisition channel** — Which channels bring stickier customers?
- **Plan type** — Which plans churn most?
- **Tenure** — When do most cancellations happen? (30, 60, 90 days?)
- **Cancel reason** — Which reasons are growing?
- **Save offer type** — Which offers work best for which segments?

### Cancel Flow A/B Tests

Test one variable at a time:

| Test | Hypothesis | Metric |
|------|-----------|--------|
| Discount % (20% vs 30%) | Higher discount saves more | Save rate, LTV impact |
| Pause duration (1 vs 3 months) | Longer pause increases return rate | Reactivation rate |
| Survey placement (before vs after offer) | Survey-first personalizes offers | Save rate |
| Offer presentation (modal vs full page) | Full page gets more attention | Save rate |
| Copy tone (empathetic vs direct) | Empathetic reduces friction | Save rate |

**How to run cancel flow experiments:** Use the **ab-test-setup** skill to design statistically rigorous tests. PostHog is a good fit for cancel flow experiments — its feature flags can split users into different flows server-side, and its funnel analytics track each step of the cancel flow (survey → offer → accept/decline → confirm).

---

## Common Mistakes

- **No cancel flow at all** — Instant cancel leaves money on the table. Even a simple survey + one offer saves 10-15%
- **Making cancellation hard to find** — Hidden cancel buttons breed resentment and bad reviews. Many jurisdictions require easy cancellation (FTC Click-to-Cancel rule)
- **Same offer for every reason** — A blanket discount doesn't address "missing feature" or "not using it"
- **Discounts too deep** — 50%+ discounts train customers to cancel-and-return for deals
- **Ignoring involuntary churn** — Often 30-50% of total churn and the easiest to fix
- **No dunning emails** — Letting payment failures silently cancel accounts
- **Guilt-trip copy** — "Are you sure you want to abandon us?" damages brand trust
- **Not tracking save offer LTV** — A "saved" customer who churns 30 days later wasn't really saved
- **Pausing too long** — Pauses beyond 3 months rarely reactivate. Set limits.
- **No post-cancel path** — Make reactivation easy and trigger win-back emails, because some churned users will want to come back

---

## Tool Integrations

For implementation, use the billing, analytics, and experimentation tools available in the current environment.

### Retention Platforms

| Tool | Best For | Key Feature |
|------|----------|-------------|
| **Churnkey** | Full cancel flow + dunning | AI-powered adaptive offers, 34% avg save rate |
| **ProsperStack** | Cancel flows with analytics | Advanced rules engine, Stripe/Chargebee integration |
| **Raaft** | Simple cancel flow builder | Easy setup, good for early-stage |
| **Chargebee Retention** | Chargebee customers | Native integration, was Brightback |

### Billing Providers (Dunning)

| Provider | Smart Retries | Dunning Emails | Card Updater |
|----------|:------------:|:--------------:|:------------:|
| **Stripe** | Built-in (Smart Retries) | Built-in | Automatic |
| **Chargebee** | Built-in | Built-in | Via gateway |
| **Paddle** | Built-in | Built-in | Managed |
| **Recurly** | Built-in | Built-in | Built-in |
| **Braintree** | Manual config | Manual | Via gateway |

### Related CLI Tools

| Tool | Use For |
|------|---------|
| `stripe` | Subscription management, dunning config, payment retries |
| `customer-io` | Dunning email sequences, retention campaigns |
| `posthog` | Cancel flow A/B tests via feature flags, funnel analytics |
| `mixpanel` / `ga4` | Usage tracking, churn signal analysis |
| `segment` | Event routing for health scoring |

---

## Related Skills

- **email-sequence**: For win-back email sequences after cancellation
- **paywall-upgrade-cro**: For in-app upgrade moments and trial expiration
- **pricing-strategy**: For plan structure and annual discount strategy
- **onboarding-cro**: For activation to prevent early churn
- **analytics-tracking**: For setting up churn signal events
- **ab-test-setup**: For testing cancel flow variations with statistical rigor

## Limitations
- Use this skill only when the task clearly matches the scope described above.
- Do not treat the output as a substitute for environment-specific validation, testing, or expert review.
- Stop and ask for clarification if required inputs, permissions, safety boundaries, or success criteria are missing.

When to use

Plan retention, dunning and win-back decision paths.

What you get

The complete original guidance with attribution and declared limits.

How it works

Clarify the evidence and task scope, then use the source guidance within actual authorization.

Requirements

Customer cohort evidence, policy constraints, actual offers and consented channels.

Delivery and review notes

Original written content is supplied under CC BY 4.0 with attribution; repository code is separately MIT. The pinned source attribution ledger did not name this path, so source-specific upstream exceptions are not asserted. Referenced runtimes, scripts, integrations and sibling skills are not bundled or installed. Brief obvious-danger screening only; no functional test or comprehensive safety certification. Loading this text authorizes no external action.

Starting prompt

Use Churn Prevention for [TASK]. Clarify Customer cohort evidence, policy constraints, actual offers and consented channels. Identify evidence gaps and missing dependencies. Do not claim results, approval or execution without evidence.

Not for

Treating this attributed guidance as installed software, professional certification or authorization for external actions.

What M11 added

German routing and delivery limits. Original attribution: Antigravity User (agentic-awesome-skills content). Original written content is supplied under CC BY 4.0 with attribution; repository code is separately MIT. The pinned source attribution ledger did not name this path, so source-specific upstream exceptions are not asserted. Referenced runtimes, scripts, integrations and sibling skills are not bundled or installed. Brief obvious-danger screening only; no functional test or comprehensive safety certification. Loading this text authorizes no external action.

Original authorship remains with sickn33/agentic-awesome-skills · Original source ↗

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          under any voluntary or waivable statutory or compulsory
          licensing scheme. In all other cases the Licensor expressly
          reserves any right to collect such royalties.


Section 3 -- License Conditions.

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       1. If You Share the Licensed Material (including in modified
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            a. retain the following if it is supplied by the Licensor
               with the Licensed Material:

                 i. identification of the creator(s) of the Licensed
                    Material and any others designated to receive
                    attribution, in any reasonable manner requested by
                    the Licensor (including by pseudonym if
                    designated);

                ii. a copyright notice;

               iii. a notice that refers to this Public License;

                iv. a notice that refers to the disclaimer of
                    warranties;

                 v. a URI or hyperlink to the Licensed Material to the
                    extent reasonably practicable;

            b. indicate if You modified the Licensed Material and
               retain an indication of any previous modifications; and

            c. indicate the Licensed Material is licensed under this
               Public License, and include the text of, or the URI or
               hyperlink to, this Public License.

       2. You may satisfy the conditions in Section 3(a)(1) in any
          reasonable manner based on the medium, means, and context in
          which You Share the Licensed Material. For example, it may be
          reasonable to satisfy the conditions by providing a URI or
          hyperlink to a resource that includes the required
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       3. If requested by the Licensor, You must remove any of the
          information required by Section 3(a)(1)(A) to the extent
          reasonably practicable.

       4. If You Share Adapted Material You produce, the Adapter's
          License You apply must not prevent recipients of the Adapted
          Material from complying with this Public License.


Section 4 -- Sui Generis Database Rights.

Where the Licensed Rights include Sui Generis Database Rights that
apply to Your use of the Licensed Material:

  a. for the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right
     to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial
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  b. if You include all or a substantial portion of the database
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  c. You must comply with the conditions in Section 3(a) if You Share
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For the avoidance of doubt, this Section 4 supplements and does not
replace Your obligations under this Public License where the Licensed
Rights include other Copyright and Similar Rights.


Section 5 -- Disclaimer of Warranties and Limitation of Liability.

  a. UNLESS OTHERWISE SEPARATELY UNDERTAKEN BY THE LICENSOR, TO THE
     EXTENT POSSIBLE, THE LICENSOR OFFERS THE LICENSED MATERIAL AS-IS
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     ACCURACY, OR THE PRESENCE OR ABSENCE OF ERRORS, WHETHER OR NOT
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     ALLOWED IN FULL OR IN PART, THIS DISCLAIMER MAY NOT APPLY TO YOU.

  b. TO THE EXTENT POSSIBLE, IN NO EVENT WILL THE LICENSOR BE LIABLE
     TO YOU ON ANY LEGAL THEORY (INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION,
     NEGLIGENCE) OR OTHERWISE FOR ANY DIRECT, SPECIAL, INDIRECT,
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  c. The disclaimer of warranties and limitation of liability provided
     above shall be interpreted in a manner that, to the extent
     possible, most closely approximates an absolute disclaimer and
     waiver of all liability.


Section 6 -- Term and Termination.

  a. This Public License applies for the term of the Copyright and
     Similar Rights licensed here. However, if You fail to comply with
     this Public License, then Your rights under this Public License
     terminate automatically.

  b. Where Your right to use the Licensed Material has terminated under
     Section 6(a), it reinstates:

       1. automatically as of the date the violation is cured, provided
          it is cured within 30 days of Your discovery of the
          violation; or

       2. upon express reinstatement by the Licensor.

     For the avoidance of doubt, this Section 6(b) does not affect any
     right the Licensor may have to seek remedies for Your violations
     of this Public License.

  c. For the avoidance of doubt, the Licensor may also offer the
     Licensed Material under separate terms or conditions or stop
     distributing the Licensed Material at any time; however, doing so
     will not terminate this Public License.

  d. Sections 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8 survive termination of this Public
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Section 7 -- Other Terms and Conditions.

  a. The Licensor shall not be bound by any additional or different
     terms or conditions communicated by You unless expressly agreed.

  b. Any arrangements, understandings, or agreements regarding the
     Licensed Material not stated herein are separate from and
     independent of the terms and conditions of this Public License.


Section 8 -- Interpretation.

  a. For the avoidance of doubt, this Public License does not, and
     shall not be interpreted to, reduce, limit, restrict, or impose
     conditions on any use of the Licensed Material that could lawfully
     be made without permission under this Public License.

  b. To the extent possible, if any provision of this Public License is
     deemed unenforceable, it shall be automatically reformed to the
     minimum extent necessary to make it enforceable. If the provision
     cannot be reformed, it shall be severed from this Public License
     without affecting the enforceability of the remaining terms and
     conditions.

  c. No term or condition of this Public License will be waived and no
     failure to comply consented to unless expressly agreed to by the
     Licensor.

  d. Nothing in this Public License constitutes or may be interpreted
     as a limitation upon, or waiver of, any privileges and immunities
     that apply to the Licensor or You, including from the legal
     processes of any jurisdiction or authority.


=======================================================================

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its public licenses to material it publishes and in those instances
will be considered the “Licensor.” The text of the Creative Commons
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the avoidance of doubt, this paragraph does not form part of the
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Creative Commons may be contacted at creativecommons.org.

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