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33 · Business · Scenario Planning

Compound Business Scenarios

Explore interacting business shocks and cross-functional responses.

mehrfachszenarienscenario-war-room

Cross-Functional Scenario War Room · Original SKILL.md

---
name: "scenario-war-room"
description: "Cross-functional what-if modeling for cascading multi-variable scenarios. Unlike single-assumption stress testing, this models compound adversity across all business functions simultaneously. Use when facing complex risk scenarios, strategic decisions with major downside, or when the user asks 'what if X AND Y both happen?'"
license: MIT
metadata:
  version: 1.0.0
  author: Alireza Rezvani
  category: c-level
  domain: strategic-planning
  updated: 2026-03-05
  python-tools: scenario_modeler.py
  frameworks: scenario-planning
---

# Scenario War Room

Model cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests — compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next.

## Keywords
scenario planning, war room, what-if analysis, risk modeling, cascading effects, compound risk, adversity planning, contingency planning, stress test, crisis planning, multi-variable scenario, pre-mortem

## Quick Start

```bash
python scripts/scenario_modeler.py   # Interactive scenario builder with cascade modeling
```

Or describe the scenario in natural language:

> "What if we lose our top customer AND miss the Q3 fundraise?"
> "What if 3 engineers quit AND we need to ship by Q3?"
> "What if our market shrinks 30% AND a competitor raises $50M?"

## What This Is Not

- **Not** a single-assumption stress test (that's `/em:stress-test`)
- **Not** financial modeling only — every function gets modeled
- **Not** worst-case-only — models 3 severity levels
- **Not** paralysis by analysis — outputs concrete hedges and triggers

## Framework: 6-Step Cascade Model

### Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (max 3)
State each variable with:
- **What changes** — specific, quantified if possible
- **Probability** — your best estimate
- **Timeline** — when it hits

```
Variable A: Top customer (28% ARR) gives 60-day termination notice
  Probability: 15% | Timeline: Within 90 days

Variable B: Series A fundraise delayed 6 months beyond target close
  Probability: 25% | Timeline: Q3

Variable C: Lead engineer resigns
  Probability: 20% | Timeline: Unknown
```

### Step 2: Domain Impact Mapping

For each variable, each relevant role models impact:

| Domain | Owner | Models |
|--------|-------|--------|
| Cash & runway | CFO | Burn impact, runway change, bridge options |
| Revenue | CRO | ARR gap, churn cascade risk, pipeline |
| Product | CPO | Roadmap impact, PMF risk |
| Engineering | CTO | Velocity impact, key person risk |
| People | CHRO | Attrition cascade, hiring freeze implications |
| Operations | COO | Capacity, OKR impact, process risk |
| Security | CISO | Compliance timeline risk |
| Market | CMO | CAC impact, competitive exposure |

### Step 3: Cascade Effect Mapping

This is the core. Show how Variable A triggers consequences in domains that trigger Variable B's effects:

```
TRIGGER: Customer churn ($560K ARR)
  ↓
CFO: Runway drops 14 → 8 months
  ↓
CHRO: Hiring freeze; retention risk increases (morale hit)
  ↓
CTO: 3 open engineering reqs frozen; roadmap slips
  ↓
CPO: Q4 feature launch delayed → customer retention risk
  ↓
CRO: NRR drops; existing accounts see reduced velocity → more churn risk
  ↓
CFO: [Secondary cascade — potential death spiral if not interrupted]
```

Name the cascade explicitly. Show where it can be interrupted.

### Step 4: Severity Matrix

Model three scenarios:

| Scenario | Definition | Recovery |
|----------|------------|---------|
| **Base** | One variable hits; others don't | Manageable with plan |
| **Stress** | Two variables hit simultaneously | Requires significant response |
| **Severe** | All variables hit; full cascade | Existential; requires board intervention |

For each severity level:
- Runway impact
- ARR impact
- Headcount impact
- Timeline to unacceptable state (trigger point)

### Step 5: Trigger Points (Early Warning Signals)

Define the measurable signal that tells you a scenario is unfolding **before** it's confirmed:

```
Trigger for Customer Churn Risk:
  - Sponsor goes dark for >3 weeks
  - Usage drops >25% MoM
  - No Q1 QBR confirmed by Dec 1

Trigger for Fundraise Delay:
  - <3 term sheets after 60 days of process
  - Lead investor requests >30-day extension on DD
  - Competitor raises at lower valuation (market signal)

Trigger for Engineering Attrition:
  - Glassdoor activity from engineering team
  - 2+ referral interview requests from engineers
  - Above-market offer counter-required in last 3 months
```

### Step 6: Hedging Strategies

For each scenario: actions to take **now** (before the scenario materializes) that reduce impact if it does.

| Hedge | Cost | Impact | Owner | Deadline |
|-------|------|--------|-------|---------|
| Establish $500K credit line | $5K/year | Buys 3 months if churn hits | CFO | 60 days |
| 12-month retention bonus for 3 key engineers | $90K | Locks team through fundraise | CHRO | 30 days |
| Diversify to <20% revenue concentration per customer | Sales effort | Reduces single-customer risk | CRO | 2 quarters |
| Compress fundraise timeline, start parallel process | CEO time | Closes before runways merge | CEO | Immediate |

---

## Output Format

Every war room session produces:

```
SCENARIO: [Name]
Variables: [A, B, C]
Most likely path: [which combination actually plays out, with probability]

SEVERITY LEVELS
Base (A only): [runway/ARR impact] — recovery: [X actions]
Stress (A+B): [runway/ARR impact] — recovery: [X actions]
Severe (A+B+C): [runway/ARR impact] — existential risk: [yes/no]

CASCADE MAP
[A → domain impact → B trigger → domain impact → end state]

EARLY WARNING SIGNALS
- [Signal 1 → which scenario it indicates]
- [Signal 2 → which scenario it indicates]
- [Signal 3 → which scenario it indicates]

HEDGES (take these actions now)
1. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]
2. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]
3. [Action] — cost: $X — impact: [what it buys] — owner: [role] — deadline: [date]

RECOMMENDED DECISION
[One paragraph. What to do, in what order, and why.]
```

---

## Rules for Good War Room Sessions

**Max 3 variables per scenario.** More than 3 is noise — you can't meaningfully prepare for 5-variable collapse. Model the 3 that actually worry you.

**Quantify or estimate.** "Revenue drops" is not useful. "$420K ARR at risk over 60 days" is. Use ranges if uncertain.

**Don't stop at first-order effects.** The damage is always in the cascade, not the initial hit.

**Model recovery, not just impact.** Every scenario should have a "what we do" path.

**Separate base case from sensitivity.** Don't conflate "what probably happens" with "what could happen."

**Don't over-model.** 3-4 scenarios per planning cycle is the right number. More creates analysis paralysis.

---

## Common Scenarios by Stage

**Seed:**
- Co-founder leaves + product misses launch
- Funding runs out + bridge terms unfavorable

**Series A:**
- Miss ARR target + fundraise delayed
- Key customer churns + competitor raises

**Series B:**
- Market contraction + burn multiple spikes
- Lead investor wants pivot + team resists

## Integration with C-Suite Roles

| Scenario Type | Primary Roles | Cascade To |
|--------------|---------------|------------|
| Revenue miss | CRO, CFO | CMO (pipeline), COO (cuts), CHRO (layoffs) |
| Key person departure | CHRO, COO | CTO (if eng), CRO (if sales) |
| Fundraise failure | CFO, CEO | COO (runway extension), CHRO (hiring freeze) |
| Security breach | CISO, CTO | CEO (comms), CFO (cost), CRO (customer impact) |
| Market shift | CEO, CPO | CMO (repositioning), CRO (new segments) |
| Competitor move | CMO, CRO | CPO (roadmap response), CEO (strategy) |

## References
- `references/scenario-planning.md` — Shell methodology, pre-mortem, Monte Carlo, cascade frameworks
- `scripts/scenario_modeler.py` — CLI tool for structured scenario modeling

When to use

Explore interacting business shocks and cross-functional responses.

What you get

The complete original guidance with attributed source and declared limitations.

How it works

Clarify the task and evidence, then apply relevant source instructions within authorized scope.

Requirements

Baseline, simultaneous assumptions, dependencies, time horizon and decision thresholds.

Delivery and review notes

Brief source danger screening: full-text pattern triage and review of flagged passages, not a comprehensive audit or functional test. Scores, thresholds, benchmarks and examples are decision aids, not verified outcomes; retain actual decision-owner approval. Referenced scripts, templates, integrations and sibling skills are not supplied or installed unless explicitly listed as included. External calls, account changes, messages and file writes require the actual user task and authorization.

Starting prompt

Use Compound Business Scenarios for [TASK]. Ask for missing inputs: Baseline, simultaneous assumptions, dependencies, time horizon and decision thresholds. Identify assumptions and missing tools before execution; do not claim results or approvals without evidence.

Not for

Claiming runtime installation, certified safety, verified numerical outputs or permission for external actions merely from loading this source.

What M11 added

German routing, task scope and source limitations. Original author attribution: Alireza Rezvani. Brief source danger screening: full-text pattern triage and review of flagged passages, not a comprehensive audit or functional test. Scores, thresholds, benchmarks and examples are decision aids, not verified outcomes; retain actual decision-owner approval. Referenced scripts, templates, integrations and sibling skills are not supplied or installed unless explicitly listed as included. External calls, account changes, messages and file writes require the actual user task and authorization.

Original authorship remains with alirezarezvani/claude-skills · Original source ↗

Original license & copyright

MIT License

Copyright (c) 2025 Alireza Rezvani

Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:

The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
copies or substantial portions of the Software.

THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
SOFTWARE.

Source SHA-256: bbc259eb11e8ba20e3eee2c5a531ef43994685c7274514a4e3709dba2dd6bf3a
Snapshot checked: 2026-09-28T15:50:31.645Z

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