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61 · Business · Product Strategy

Product Shaping / Bounded Bets

Shapes product work into bounded, evidence-aware bets before delivery resources are committed.

product-shapingshape-upappetitescopeproduct-betproduktplanungproduktstrategiepriorisierung

Product Shaping / Bounded Bets · Original SKILL.md

---
name: product-shaping
description: >-
  Use this skill to shape product or engineering work before committing time to it:
  set appetites instead of estimates, narrow raw ideas into bounded problems, sketch
  solutions at the right level of abstraction, de-risk rabbit holes, write pitches,
  bet with capped downside (circuit breaker), and govern builds with discovered scopes
  and scope hammering. Adapted from Basecamp's Shape Up and extended for human+AI-agent
  teams. Use when a raw idea, feature request, or "redesign X" grab-bag needs to become
  a bounded project before anyone builds; when planning how much work an idea is worth;
  or when delegated agent builds need budgets, kill criteria, and non-convergence
  rules. Do not use for discovering whether a problem is real (use product-discovery),
  for portfolio-level sequencing across quarters (product-roadmapping-and-portfolio),
  for formal specification after the bet is placed (spec-driven-development), or for
  task-level prioritization frameworks like RICE (product-methodology).
license: MIT
metadata:
  tags: product-shaping, shape-up, appetite, pitch, betting, circuit-breaker, scope-hammering, hill-chart, bounded-delegation
---

# Product Shaping

Pre-commitment methodology for product and engineering work, adapted from Ryan Singer's
*Shape Up* (free edition at [basecamp.com/shapeup](https://basecamp.com/shapeup)),
extended for teams whose builders include AI agents.

The loop: **shape** a raw idea into a bounded pitch → **bet** a fixed appetite on it →
**build** by discovering scopes and hammering scope to fit the box → **move on**,
letting post-ship feedback re-enter as raw ideas.

## The core moves

1. **Set boundaries** — choose the appetite ("how much is this worth?") and narrow the
   problem to one specific story. Kill grab-bags ("redesign X", "X 2.0").
2. **Find the elements** — sketch the solution rough, solved, and bounded: breadboards
   for flows, fat-marker fidelity for visual problems, components-and-contracts for
   non-UI work.
3. **Patch rabbit holes** — attack your own sketch; settle hard decisions now, declare
   out-of-bounds cases, cut what the appetite can't afford.
4. **Write the pitch** — problem, appetite, solution, rabbit holes, no-gos.
5. **Bet** — commit the box uninterrupted, downside capped. No finish, no extension by
   default: the circuit breaker routes failure back to shaping.
6. **Build** — one integrated slice first, then discovered scopes tracked as
   uphill→downhill states; sequence scariest-first; compare down to baseline when
   deciding to stop.
7. **Move on** — scope cuts are not quality cuts; new feedback needs shaping, not
   instant yes.

## Reference files

Load only what the current step needs:

| Reference | Load when |
|---|---|
| [references/principles.md](references/principles.md) | You need the why: appetite vs estimate, fixed-time-variable-scope, rough/solved/bounded, evidence boundaries, lineage |
| [references/shaping.md](references/shaping.md) | Shaping steps 1–4 in detail, including shaping non-UI/backend/infrastructure work |
| [references/betting.md](references/betting.md) | Bets vs backlogs, circuit breaker mechanics, cycles as optional scaffolding, handling defects between bets |
| [references/building.md](references/building.md) | Hand-over-responsibility, one-piece-done, scope mapping, hill-state tracking, deciding when to stop |
| [references/hybrid-adaptation.md](references/hybrid-adaptation.md) | Any bet involving AI-agent builders: budget currencies, batched steering, verification cost inside scope, kill criteria for non-converging loops |
| [references/anti-patterns.md](references/anti-patterns.md) | Before betting anything that matters — documented field failures and their mitigations |

## Templates

| Template | Purpose |
|---|---|
| [templates/PITCH.md](templates/PITCH.md) | Fillable five-ingredient pitch document |
| [templates/SCOPE_MAP.md](templates/SCOPE_MAP.md) | Fillable scope table with hill states, chowder list, and breaker check |

## Entry points

| Situation | Start here |
|---|---|
| Raw idea or request arrived | [references/shaping.md](references/shaping.md) step 1 |
| Idea is validated but unbounded | [references/shaping.md](references/shaping.md) |
| Ready to write up the concept | [templates/PITCH.md](templates/PITCH.md) |
| Deciding what gets the next box | [references/betting.md](references/betting.md) |
| Bet placed, starting the build | [references/building.md](references/building.md) |
| Builders are AI agents | [references/hybrid-adaptation.md](references/hybrid-adaptation.md) |
| Project keeps not finishing / loops won't converge | [references/anti-patterns.md](references/anti-patterns.md), then hybrid-adaptation kill criteria |

## When not to use

- **The problem itself isn't validated yet** → `product-discovery`. Shaping narrows
  validated problems; it does not investigate whether the problem is real.
- **The question is strategic** (positioning, market entry, portfolio weight across
  quarters) → `product-strategy` or `product-roadmapping-and-portfolio`. This skill
  packages a single bet — one bounded commitment with an appetite and circuit breaker;
  roadmapping sequences many such bets across cycles with continue/pause/kill criteria.
- **The bet is already placed and the work needs a formal spec** → `spec-driven-
  development` consumes shaped output when formal specification is warranted.
- **Comparing unrelated feature proposals by score** → `product-methodology` (RICE/
  MoSCoW). Appetite replaces scoring inside this skill's scope; use one system, not both
  on the same decision.
- **An epic resists decomposition because nobody can define done** → route BACK here:
  that is an unshaped project, and force-splitting it produces disconnected tasks.
- **The work is small, routine, and fully understood** — skip shaping overhead; just do
  it.
- **The bet is placed and you need intent-to-delivery control** — classification,
  five-field intent contracts, autonomy gating, failure routing, and resumable status
  across the run. Route to `bmad`. Shaping ends at the bet; bmad carries the placed
  intent through bounded, inspectable, resumable agent work.

## Related skills

- `product-discovery` — upstream: validates the problem before narrowing begins
- `product-strategy`, `product-roadmapping-and-portfolio` — strategic context above bets
- `product-methodology` — downstream consumer of a won bet (prioritization, spec drafting)
- `spec-driven-development` — optional formal specification of shaped output post-bet
- `implementation-planning`, `subagent-driven-development` — execution after the bet;
  decompose only downhill work, never pre-shred a pitch
- `bmad` — intent-to-delivery control-plane protocol once the bet is placed:
  classification, five-field intent contracts, autonomy gating, failure routing,
  resumable spec status
- `work-tracking` — where scope/hill state lives during the build
- `qa-methodology` — edge-case QA as late-cycle level-up, not gate

## Evidence note

Every practice claim originates from one company's account (Basecamp, 2019).
Independent team records through 2026 show real adaptations and documented abandonments;
read references/anti-patterns.md before betting anything that matters, and treat six-week
cycles as tunable scaffolding rather than doctrine.

When to use

Shapes product work into bounded, evidence-aware bets before delivery resources are committed.

What you get

The complete original method, source attribution and declared delivery limits.

How it works

Clarify the decision context and evidence, apply the framework, then name unresolved questions and accountable next steps.

Requirements

Problem, target outcome, constraints, appetite, evidence and product decision owner.

Delivery and review notes

Original documentation is published by Magnus Hedemark under the repository MIT license at the pinned revision. The unchanged original is supplied as planning guidance. Referenced files, scripts, runtimes and sibling skills are not bundled or installed. Validate current facts, legal/compliance interpretations, business metrics and operational decisions with accountable owners. Loading the text does not authorize deployments, code changes, customer outreach, account changes or other external actions.

Starting prompt

Use Product Shaping / Bounded Bets for [TASK]. Establish Problem, target outcome, constraints, appetite, evidence and product decision owner. Separate evidence from assumptions and return a bounded recommendation with open questions. Do not claim approval, execution or current facts without evidence.

Not for

Treating a project pitch as validated demand or starting delivery automatically.

What M11 added

M11 added German routing and scope limits. Original documentation is published by Magnus Hedemark under the repository MIT license at the pinned revision. The unchanged original is supplied as planning guidance. Referenced files, scripts, runtimes and sibling skills are not bundled or installed. Validate current facts, legal/compliance interpretations, business metrics and operational decisions with accountable owners. Loading the text does not authorize deployments, code changes, customer outreach, account changes or other external actions.

Original authorship remains with magnus919/agent-skills · Original source ↗

Original license & copyright

MIT License

Copyright (c) 2026 Magnus Hedemark

Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:

The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
copies or substantial portions of the Software.

THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
SOFTWARE.

Source SHA-256: 086d41b5e1933d9b10c389325c6914403fba9f54a375797b902c9a404e9a0cd2
Snapshot checked: 2026-09-28T17:49:59.961Z

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